Subsidize to Make It Cheap Enough to Sell; Restrict Supply for High Prices
Tuesday, June 12, 2001—The New Jersey State Assembley has pushed a solar energy subsidy bill out of committee. According to an article on the New Jersey Spotlight:
In a move eagerly anticipated by the solar sector, a legislative panel yesterday voted out a bill proponents say will revitalize the flagging industry in New Jersey. ...
The stakes, however, are enormous for ratepayers, who could end up paying even more than nearly $6.8 billion in subsidies they would owe under existing regulations requiring solar energy development by 2028, according to Division of Rate Counsel Stefanie Brand. Pending legislation would ramp up those costs even more, she said.
As the analysis below (from the Montgomery TEA Party) shows, solar power at current prices can only be "profitable" with heavy subsidies. And even discounting the subsidies, the net benefit of low-density, part-time renewables to the poewr grid is negative, because back-up generating capacity must be supplied and its costs must be covered. Since it will be "peaking" generation, it will be more expensive and less efficient than "baseline" generation. (For technical background on these issues and others, Robert Bryce's Power Hungry is a superb text and recommended if you are to go toe-to-toe with a Renewables partisan in a debate.) (Wind is even worse than solar and has its own unique problems.)
Continue reading below if you are interested in the basic economics behind the NJ Solar PV industry. YOU WILL NEVER SEE THIS INFORMATION IN THE NEWSPAPER OR PRESENTED BY YOUR LOCAL POLITICO, UTILITY COMPANY or ENVIRO.
a. Solar PV Installation Capital Cost: $5,500 per kW (1)
b. Average Annual full load Operating Hours: 1,300 (2)
c. Utility company regulated rate of return: 11%
d. Income requirement: $5,500 * 0.11 = $605/kW/year
e. Selling Price: $605/kW/year divided by 1,300 hours/year = $0.465/kWh or 46.5 cents/kWh or about 5.5 times the average grid price.
So, why does Solar sell at all to anyone?
f. 30% Federal tax deduction (3) on capital cost; deduct 13.95 cents/kWh - Balance: 32.55 cents/kWh
g. 18% Federal accelerated depreciation; deduct 8.37cents/kWh - Balance: 24.28 cents/kWh
h. NJ SREC payments (4) anywhere between 10 cents/kWh (current market) and about 35 cents/kWh (or similar level depending what comes out of A2966) = 14.28 cents/kWh (about right for offsetting electricity costs at the meter that include utility distribution costs) or if the SREC is at 35 cents/kWh as the bill is indicating, "the project is minting cash" and throwing off 10.72 cents/kWh in addition to the 11% rate of return above.
(1) Somerset county Phase II Solar tranch: 7.5 MW budgeted at $40M (bonded at $52M). $40,000,000/7,500kW = $5,330 - Call $5,500/kW. This is approximately the same cost as a nuclear power plant that generates power 8,760 hours per year, not the 1,300 hours per year typical of a solar PV system.
(2) 8,760 total hours per year. Its more complicated than this, but here is the tangible logic: Divide the total annual hours in a year by 2 for daylight hours = 4,330. Divide by 2 again for the sun not being directly overhead = 2,330. Divide by 2 again for cloudy days ~ 1,300.
(3) Solar panels are manufactured overseas in China as we cannot compete in this market in the US (remember Solyndra?). As we borrow about 44 cents of every dollar spent at the federal level, our borrowed dollars that finance 48% (30% plus 18%) of the capital cost of these systems are exported to Chinese companies to procure these panels. Think about this... We borrow money from China to buy solar panels from China to generate green electricity that is more than 5 times more expensive than average grid power? Go figure...
(4) SRECS have traded at over 60 cents/kWh. The market is at present at about 10 cents/kWh. The market quotes in dollars per megawatt hour so 10 cents/kWh equates to $100/MWH; just move the decimal place one point to the left to yield cents/kWh.